Evaluating and Interpreting the Creation of Causal Influence Models

Below (flash required for viewing)  is a poster submission that highlights some of the research I helped to conduct in my first year at UB.  The research objective was to investigate users’ abilities to create Causal Influence Networks, a class of Bayesian networks, with varying complexity and types of relationships, using a causal influence model.  Funding for this research was generously provided by Charles River Analytics.

Abstract: Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic models used to reason under uncertainty by graphically expressing domain knowledge in order to reason about states, causes, and effects. While BNs have many advantages, their complexity can hamper the process of knowledge elicitation and encoding. For example, BNs require the definition of a priori, conditional probabilities: as complex models increase in size, this requires eliciting exponential numbers of complex probabilities. Multiple “canonical modeling” approaches, such as Causal Influence Models (CIMs), have been developed to address these complexities. However, little progress has been made towards human-in-the-loop evaluation of such approaches – specifically, their accessibility and usability, their related user interfaces, and how they enable a user to correctly create and interpret variables and probabilistic relationships. In this study, we evaluated the CIM approach (implemented in a software application) to determine the effect on user task performance. Results indicate that the model complexity has an adverse effect on performance when users are interpreting an existing model; that semantics of a model may impact performance; and that users were generally successful in creating new models of different situations.

Ergonomic Job Analysis of Stadium Demarcation

[Update 3/6/2011] We won first prize for our efforts in the Ergonomics Design Competition! As a result we will be travelling to Orlando, FL to receive an award at the Applied Ergonomics Conference in March 2011. You can also read a nice write-up regarding the project that appeared in a recent Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES) Bulletin here: http://www.hfes.org/web/HFESBulletin/Mar2011milestonesprize.html

The 4th Annual Auburn Engineering Ergonomics Design competition wrapped up 1’24″ ago.  The competition took place over a month, involved 18 teams of 5 or less persons, and was comprised of 2 rounds of problems along with 2 lightning rounds.   Basically we had a few weeks to solve the first problem, which was how to improve safety and efficiency of wedding photographers, and then 48 hours (starting from Sunday 11/7/2010 @ 3:00PM) to complete the final round problem – analyze and provide recommendations to improve safety/efficiency of manual football stadium demarcation.  Along the way we also got 2 lighting rounds dropped in which are 24 hour deadline simplified problems that weren’t too bad.

The final result was a 60 hour period with roughly 12 hours of sleep (not that bad really) and some great ergonomic evaluations/recommendations for field demarcation (which is just measuring, laying out, and painting the field.

If you’re interested in this type of project you can view a summary powerpoint designed to be pitched to a stadium groundscrew here: (.ppts), download our full report here: (.pdf), or check out the poster submission that was created based on this research for the 2010 Interuniversity Workshop in Waterloo, Ontario.

It was one of those fun, yet stressful projects that is a relief to be done with, but was also a good experience.  Not sure when we get the competition results, but i’m not too concerned with praise from Auburn Engineering since as I said the experience was the real value-add for me since I have not had a lot of opportunities to apply my traditional ergonomic analysis training.

Go Industrial Engineering!

Also, forgot to mention our team name was CogitoErgoSumians which is a demented version of Cogito Ergo Suma, meaning I think, therefore I am.   I smell a consulting company name…

UB eh?

So… I have been in Buffalo for approximately 25.5 hours and its tolerable still, this is a good sign.   Why?  because i’m here trying to figure out if Michael Jenkins will become Dr Jenkins, or just Dr J. for short.

 I visited SUNY Buffalo, otherwise known to the locals as UB, today to meet the faculty and students in their IE/HF department.  I visited labs, talked with professors and students, ate at their caf (their pizza is far supperior to Bentley’s and they have a Taco Bell on campus), among other things.  Last night I also went to the hockey game to watch teh Sabres barely defeat the Bruins in OT and went to the best bar in Buffalo, which could easily hold its own in Boston, and is open until 4AM.  I had an amazing meatloaf and tomotoe pannininini there.

 Back on topic, the program seems great.  It is intimidating, or at least the courseload of the first year and the fact that i’ll be 28 when i finish school is enough to leave me questionning, but every student in the program seemed very very happy to be there.  They have plenty of intramurals which is a plus.  And, other than 2 or 3 required courses I would be able to completely customize my schedule and what courses i enroll in…. but 28 years old when i’m done with school, and 4-5 years in Buffalo… that’s a long time.

I think that in my subconscious mind i’ve already made my decision but i’m not sure what it is, working and finally having money are so attractive, but as one of the professors put it today, a PhD opens up so many opportunities and puts you in a ring of contacts you can work with around the globe.  Also, a major plus is that it sounds like they’ll let me do basically any research project i can come up with related to HF… not that I have one, but this leaves the door open to me at least.

 I will surely continue to ponder this decision, which in my mind is basically the largest decision i’ve had to make with my life to date.  It is a true fork in my life where i’m not 100% sure where either way takes me or which one i want to be on.

[ zero-gravity environment research would be cool]

Professor Jenkins?

I’ve been accepted into SUNY Buffalo’s Human Factors Engineering PhD program for Fall of 2008.  They’ve offerred me tuition and a stipend if i become a TA (which would be pretty cool right?).   I’m trying to figure out if I should accept or not since it means another 3-5 years of living in poverty and much much harsher winters which i’m already sick of from just New England winters.

 The upside would be that I get a new venue of living for a while, I could continue to put off paying my student loans, and of course i’d get to do research that i’m interested in instead of just reading other people’s work.  And i’d be a PhD before age 30 which i think would be an accomplishment.  Ideally i’d want to continue doing freelance work if I attended but i’m not sure if that’s possible given the horrible and low-tech economy of Buffalo.

 As of right now i’m accepting, the only thing that will change my mind at this point is a lucrative job offer or a job offer at a company i really want to work for.  I’m also waiting to hear from UCF on their hf program but they’ve been non-responsive which is making me not like them much.